Majuro, 70,000 people. So you might want to think about that for a moment. I have a question about what has been called hybrid warfare or gray conflict. And I think my parents are here, including my dad, who’s a veteran of Okinawa and Iwo Jima, and was lucky enough to meet the chiefs earlier. They are the same across the services and are all related: Declining budgets require significant force structure cuts. But, you know, it isn’t the—I guess I’m a classicist in that the nature of war really hasn’t changed, and we are going to—it is a contest between thinking adversaries, and they’re going to study our vulnerabilities and they’re going to target those vulnerabilities to achieve their aim. And they’re saying the sea level is rising. And that’s quite a bit different than what I saw in the fall. SANGER: Just one or two last things and then we’re going to open it up to all of you. Is it more F-35s? So at least in that regard, we have that capability. SANGER: You can pass these off a little bit later on, yeah. And we’re going to go do 980(,000) by fiscal year ’18. And I’m very confident of the outcome. We’ve had pretty good success at that here of late without going after my dear friend John Richardson’s Navy budget. We’ve had the secretary of defense, the deputy secretary, some of you in testimony, talk about the use of cyber right alongside your air power, your ground power. Early in the year, that was reduced to 76,500. They give us very broad authorities. And you can have the coolest ship on the planet but it can only be in one place at a time, and it can’t be in the Gulf and in the South China Sea. So we’re going to have to be—we’ve thought about this a lot but it all involves permissions and authorities. HAASS: Well, good evening and welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations. They deserve the sacraments. (Laughter.). War is so common in the world today, and especially in the third world countries. We’re going to be at 308 (ships) by the end of, you know, 2020, 2021. David, thank you very much. An area we didn’t talk about is Central and South America, our hemisphere. Bangladesh, by the year 2050 it could affect 18 million people with rising sea levels. (Laughter.). The European Union and the United Kingdom came to a last-minute trade deal on Christmas Eve, narrowly averting the hardest of all potential Brexits. We think that’s sufficient capabilities to execute the strategies as they exist today. We have 42 counter-drug agreements that allow us to use deadly force right up to the shoreline of another country. How do we define ourselves? MILLEY: I think, David, that’s a really key point. The Trump administration sought to reframe foreign aid around competition with China and Russia, but shrinking budgets and inconsistent policies undermined the effort. But major uncertainty remains. And it’s also a multinational approach. Twenty to 30 years from now, I think it’ll start to shift. And they had this terrorist component. For the first time you could have a North Korean nuclear weapon that can reach American forces. For example, suicide rates among veterans continue to soar. Thank you, Richard. The most important issues facing America today are certainly frightening, and unfortunately, not all of these will have direct and obvious solutions that can be … The propensity (willingness) to serve is approximately 15 percent, leaving 1,020,000 able but unwilling to serve, and 180,000 able and willing to serve. They are much more than that now. And so, you know, advocating for the ruleset that enables that trade to proceed on a very open and level playing field, allowing all players to, you know, prosper and compete, if you will, without conflict—you know, continuing to advocate for that ruleset so that as, you know, the president and everybody else say, we can operate and fly and sail wherever international law allows. Over the past 18 years of “endless war,” the Pentagon has adopted numerous measures to prop up the AVF. “As the Navy … And I think we would be a little better—we’d be much better off if we were a little more supportive—and those countries have capability and we need to be a less dismissive of them and figure out how to use them in a more effective, better way. NELLER: It depends on the context and the legalities, if we are in a designated area of hostilities or we’re not. And I can tell you from being a commander at various levels in that combat that chaplains play a critical role. With respect to the tradeoff between, you know, numbers versus capability, it is—it’s a false choice, I think, a little bit when you think about, you know, we need to provide maritime security and credible options to our decision makers. Yeah. SANGER: And how does that change the calculus? Let’s turn the question a little bit to resources, something that all five of you have to think about regularly. It’s interesting with some countries is that when you do things in response to their actions and they then accuse you of doing something to aggravate them, which causes them to do something. SANGER: I wanted to talk a little bit about another considerable adversary, one that you’re facing in the Pacific. So, you know, it’s important to understand that upfront. RICHARDSON: He read the book and he saw the movie. Bob was also a good friend—personal friend. And it’s not just the military. And it doesn’t even address mine warfare. We’re not doing as much stuff elsewhere. And you’re seeing some of that play out, and with a bit of luck it will assure our allies and deter any further aggressive actions by Russia. WELSH: OK, one last comment on that just real quickly. But the military is currently experiencing major changes, including downsizing and increased deployments to Middle East hot spots, and the nation’s military … By the way, the biggest change in Iraq and Syria, and ISIS, and from an air perspective is, in August of ’14, when this began, we looked at them as a terrorist group and we targeted them as a terrorist group, and we tried to collect intelligence on them as a terrorist group. You look like an alien. (Applause.). So the THAAD—in and of itself, the THAAD do the trick? Their moral has gone down. SANGER: China is a long-term challenge, for the reasons we’ve discussed. We’re just past the Wright flier stage, if you want to make an analogy to manned aircraft. General Neller has been division commander and assistant division commander for the First and Second Marine Divisions, president of Marine Corps University, a number of joint assignments. So that’s why, in the Navy, we’re running those numbers again. So I’ll stop there and let somebody like Mark Welsh or CNO—or General Milley, who actually owns most of the shooters and the Patriot batteries and stuff, let them talk. This is different than, you know, attacking networks and water systems and all that. (Laughter. RICHARDSON: Yeah. And, to me, the most impressive statistic at all, half of whom have gone on to the rank of general or admiral. What I think we’ve done, and we continue to do, is we work with nations who have come to ask us to help them train their force to be able to be able to counteract this. General Neller, you talked about North Korea having nuclear weapons and just really it’s a matter of time before they get delivery vehicles to deliver them to nearby and potentially even to the United States. So what we’ve done—and this is more of a special operations thing. NELLER: I read the MIT program. And when you buy a new ship in the Coast Guard, well, 50 years later we’re still operating these darn things. I think clearly if you go to the Baltic States and talk to them, they’re concerned. If conscription were implemented, many would still volunteer but it is reasonable to assume that a higher quality force could be generated from a pool of 1,020,000 than from a pool of 180,000. But, rather than a sign of widespread corruption, the fact that they're being caught and disciplined is … with James M. Lindsay, Edward Alden and Jennifer Hillman "Two weeks into our six-and-a-half-month cruise we had our first sexual assault. You know, when you travel around, you go to Iraq—and there’s people that don’t like us but, I mean, you’ve been around the world. You know, we are—we cannot just sit there. But figures from the military itself show that Moscow faces an even more serious task, given demographic problems and the army’s inability to get contract soldiers to sign … It is obvious from my time over there that Shias have a difficult time operating in Sunni territory and Sunnis have a difficult time operating in Shia territory. They’re out there attacking ISIS in a variety of places. SANGER: Well, let’s turn to our members here. December 22, 2020, To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that And we also have a number of members who are tuning in right now over a webcast and we’ll be getting some questions in from them that I’ll be mixing in with this. And then we have the compendium for it. You know, they’re not—whatever faith they are, they’re there. The ‘56 Hungarian invasion was—they weren’t a sovereign country at the time. And so, you know, this kind of expands on what General Welsh was saying in terms of, you know, appreciating this fight here for what it really is, the full dimensionality. Transition 2021: What Will Biden’s Trade Policy Look Like? Went over there in September, did not think we were doing very well. May 12, 2020, Virtual Event SANGER: —a North Korea that could actually put a nuclear weapon on a short-range missile. Jun Ayota (ph), Princeton University. And this is the fourth lecture that we’ve held since Bob’s death in 2012. So it’s not—. And so—and, you know, it’s not just us. I’d just like to go back to what the CNO and Mark Welsh said about numbers and quantity. ), NELLER: You should all be so lucky. NELLER: —we’re going to see this movie again. The team has sort of stood up, organized, and—organized their defenses to become very capable in this. It’s now an alliance of necessity again. SANGER: So can you tell us a little bit about it and where we sign up for it? The problem is not the military’s. Statements of “existential threat” and alternatives such as recruiting 16-year-olds may be a clear indication that it is past time for a fact-based national dialogue as to whether the AVF is working and will work in the future based on fairness, efficiency and sustainability. That will always be there. And because of the fights in Iraq and Afghanistan, we took a lot of the force structure we had there that we would deploy from the States to Okinawa or Japan and we sent it to the Middle East. And new partnerships forming, even after years and decades of, you know, people not working as closely together. No, they don’t feel safe. Why not? MILLEY: Well, for the Army they’re just—you mentioned going down to 450(,000). SANGER: Well, I want to thank all five of you. And yet you also have a discussion going on in the country about whether or not we even want to be engaged around the world as fully as we have been. And if that happens, then there is a chance, which is why you see, I believe, our government supporting Prime Minister Abadi and trying to bolster him, because he appears at the present time to have the best potential to create a state that supports all Iraqi people. And there are climatologists today that say the fuse has already been lit. These measures included: repeat deployments that violated long-standing dwell time policies; stop-loss, a “back door draft”; unprecedented enlistment and reenlistment bonuses; lowered enlistment standards; and the use of prescription psychotropic drugs to deal with service members’ emotional and psychological stress. 69% of military family respondents indicated the current operational tempo exerts an unacceptable level of stress for a healthy work-life balance. You know, about 30 percent of the world’s trade flows through that part of the ocean. Get the military's most comprehensive news and information every morning. Admiral Gortney is soon to be replaced by General Lori Robinson at NORTHCOM. There was a hand right over here. I think that would be counterproductive. Standards could be raised, enlistment bonuses eliminated, and thousands of recruiters returned to combat units. The Navy hits a new milestone in missile defense. They had what looked like fielded military forces. So we watch this all the time and we’re coming to the point where we’re counting the number of missiles that are there and we’re trying to come up with the force ratios. But you were at the University of Virginia, so you can talk about Thomas Jefferson every time the MIT thing comes up, right? Are you normalizing cyberwarfare, even while we’re using it against an enemy like ISIS? I didn’t realize you were doing to do it while you were here. MILLEY: Oh, I could have sworn I heard Neller. But there is some discussion that, no, we should not do that. What are you seeing in the Russian navy and submarine force? (Laughter.) I think he looks like an alien, don’t you? So I do a lot of work—I was in Hanoi, Da Nang, Manila just before the end of the year, two ASEAN countries that have been the most assertive in protecting their sovereign rights and their EEZ, where we see encroachment—drilling off the coast of Vietnam, Second Thomas Shoal in the Philippines, which is well within the EEZ of the Philippines. RICHARDSON: Well, I think the point is that—we can decide it, but the fact is it’s a pretty hot war in cyber—in the cyber domain going on right now. And there was already political unrest. NELLER: By being forward deployed. The Real Problem with America's Military. President Obama talked about a move basically to reduce our focus on the Middle East a bit. And what’s happened is the sea ice up there has receded to record levels. And then they have to have the capability to be credible, right? A fair, efficient, sustainable, legal and proven alternative to fix the military recruiting problem is readily available: conscription using a lottery based system with no exemptions and no deferments. The integrated system would do the trick, of which the THAAD is a subcomponent. And that’s what we’ve done. They’re in Anbar. So let’s see, who will—who will be first? What is the appropriate force structure in the Navy when combined with the joint force that can take on the missions that we’ve been assigned, including Russia, including ISIS, some of those forces that weren’t even on the table the last time we did this? They’re being hugely successful in Anbar right now. So that’s a difficult—very difficult policy question on, how do we get to the reset on this? And we’ve put sensors orbiting over the battlespace. We just quit paying attention. MILLEY: We’re going to see this movie again. Sixty-eight, in Czechoslovakia, Soviet forces were already there. It’s an integrated system. As you look at what the Russians are doing, is this a temporary show of force at a moment of economic decline or do you think we have a permanent resumption of activities we thought had gone away with the Cold War? (Laughter. Edward Alden, CFR’s Bernard L. Schwartz senior fellow specializing in U.S. economic competitiveness, trade, and immigration policy, and Jennifer Hillman, senior fellow for trade and international political economy at CFR, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the incoming Biden administration’s likely approach to trade policy. The American people must address their problem. An assignment manager that utilizes a computer program to manage hundreds of thous… There’s also new domains from cyberspace, to outer space, to the Arctic. And that’s what’s significant. SANGER: And we’ve seen one other change in the past six to eight months. I mean, that’s just sort of at the macro scale—you know, your father went up—his job off of Okinawa was the fighter director who was the person who vectored fighters in to go against the kamikaze threat, which was the only thing in World War II that Admiral Nimitz said he did not anticipate by virtue of his participation in the war games in Newport, right, that resulted in War Plan Orange. OK. RICHARDSON: A classic ploy, drive the wedge, you know. I think that that came through in the discussion tonight, so thank you all. Now, there’s numerous areas where the work of the Council on Foreign Relations and the military overlap, from Laurie Garrett’s analysis of the military’s response to Ebola to the contribution of our Stanton nuclear fellows, and from the works, say, by Senior Fellow Max Boot on wars big and small, to all that we’re doing on cybersecurity. Of the many hurdles military veterans face in America today, they name adjusting back to everyday life as the most significant challenge. The other services are experiencing problems in specific functional areas: pilots, cyber warriors and special ops, as examples. And their ability to move inside their own territory and their interior lines has been significantly degraded. So the White House has a strategy for the Arctic region with a number of milestones built into it. You may not have seen them but they’re there. But I believe we need NATO. And they—as a result of that, the initial strategy that Mark referred to let them have a vote and kind of direct activity for probably the first six, eight months, in my view. WELSH: Thank you, sir. SANGER: General Welsh, one of the notable elements of this war against ISIS, but before that against al-Qaida, and before that generally in Afghanistan and Iraq, has been the astounding use by the Air Force and also by the CIA, but mostly by the Air Force, of unmanned vehicles. They had training infrastructure, recruiting infrastructure, financial infrastructure, governance infrastructure. But let’s start with today. “The Navy continues to struggle with rebuilding the readiness of the existing fleet due to enduring maintenance and manning challenges,” the report finds. I think we need to make sure that we engage not only the military element of power, but also the diplomatic and economic, which are extremely important in that world. So tell us a little bit about how you view numbers versus the technological capability. As long as that happens, we’re fine. ), The only thing on our wish list really—and I think I would speak for everybody up here—is that the incredible men and women who continue to wear these uniforms and sit in this front couple of rows and stand in the back continue to want to serve this country and that their families want to stay and support them. "There were 500 women on a 5,000 man ship," Noble says, describing one of her later opportunities for sea duty. And that everything is—happens in multiple domains at once. With respect to our freedom of navigation operations, you know, I think that those are terrifically targeted operations, because they do exactly what we want them to do, which is advocate for that international ruleset. But I’ll tell you, you know, we are, I would have to say—there’s an issue of magazine depth there in terms of interceptors, and there is—you know, we’re on the wrong side of the cost curve as well. And one of the things we’re all facing is that the military services have all shrunk. December 21, 2020 So all of that progress I’m describing is important, it’s significant, but we have not yet destroyed ISIS. The issue with the Iraqi security forces is not so much one of loyalty and religious confession sort of thing. The President's Inbox, In Brief December 30, 2020. They’ve taken Hit. We’re seeing Chinese fishing trawlers provoking the United States Navy carrying out sovereign acts, but just over the horizon is the PLA. And this taskforce will release its report in June, co-chaired by Sam Nunn, the former senator, and a gentleman known very well to these men, Admiral Mike Mullen, who was the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Governments and researchers have been working with an extremely ambitious timetable to provide billions of people with immunity to the new coronavirus. So the secretary of defense has talked about the five big areas of effort for the military these days: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and, of course, the counterterrorism mission. SANGER: OK, do we still need NATO, a question I think I’ve heard in the campaign here or there. Tell us a little bit about what your concerns are there. And I should also say that all five have been read their Miranda rights. SANGER: So that includes the Reserve and the Guard. How will President-Elect Joe Biden proceed. The Air Force is 40 percent smaller than it was in 1991 and the appetite to use the military as an instrument of national power has not diminished at the same rate. The issues are less military than political. (Laughter.). There’s basically no job in the Air Force, I think, at this point, that General Welsh has not had. RICHARDSON: I’d like to comment just a little bit. ZUKUNFT: Well, first and foremost, I have an open and frank dialogue with my counterpart in China. In addition to the measures noted above, numerous pundits, consultants, think tankers and military personnel professionals have recommended measures to enhance recruiting. What is the biggest problem facing the U.S. military today? It’s kept the peace in Europe since the end of World War II. And they don’t extend beyond that. Just 29 percent of America's 18 year olds can meet minimum enlistment requirements. And it’s going to be spectacular to watch where it goes, but it doesn’t necessarily go bigger. And welcome in particular to the Robert B. McKeon Endowed Series on Military Strategy and Leadership. by Claire Felter This is a fundamentally different situation. HAASS: And David will properly introduce all five of these gentlemen. Why did we have over 60,000 unaccompanied minors show up via human traffickers at our Southwest border? RICHARDSON: Well, I think that, first of all, South China Sea, an extremely important part of the world for the entire world. Other decisions will fall from that, because the nation that puts certainty into uncertain situations has an advantage. You’ve gotten to the point—and correct me if I’m wrong on this—you probably have more pilots in training for unmanned aircraft than you did for manned aircraft. SANGER: Well, we’re in the midst of a campaign that may actually be addressing that some in the next few months. And I think it may be slower than if it were Americans to do it, but at the end of the day it will be sustainable. War and terrorism. Q: Thank you, gentlemen. NELLER: As a former NATO staff officer at SHAPE, it’s a political alliance. Intellectual property rights perhaps at play there. And so it really is a whole-of-government approach. We’ve got abilities. I have no idea who—what strategies they’ll be in the future, but we think that we can execute what’s asked of us today. They’re going to be successful. Will we ever have everything we need in our kit? (Laughter.). SANGER: OK, to the question of wish list. (Laughter. And it’s the concerns about a rising China, but particularly about the South China Sea. We can use them to actually target. WELSH: I don’t think it’ll be a whole lot more than that 10 years from now. They’re concerned. And we’re delighted to have him here. Even if you ran the numbers, did the threat analysis five years ago or so, you know, we probably wouldn’t have included Russia in that calculus. And the current leader has taken that to the next level. MILLEY: We do that in the tank all the time as well. How are we doing on making the pivot a reality at this point? The very first thing that has to be answered is what’s the role of the United States in the world? The question is, you know, we’ve only got so many bullets. But also I’m going to single out Mark Welsh, the chief of staff for the Air Force, for the last time. But what we would call social media re saying the sea ice up there has to! 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